While we’re not even officially finished with summer, people are already looking towards the holiday season, especially when it comes to shopping, and a new report predicts how things will go for retailers, and the news is mixed. According to Deloitte’s annual holiday forecast:
- Overall holiday spending between November and January should be somewhere between $1,147 billion and $1,152 billion.
- That marks an increase of between 1% and 1.5% over last year.
- E-commerce sales are expected to jump by 25% to 35% this year, which is much more than the 14.7% increase last year.
- E-commerce sales are expected to bring in between $182 and $196 billion this year.
But it’s not all good news. Deloitte notes that the holiday season could go two ways thanks to the coronavirus.
- One scenario notes that sales could remain steady from last year (0% to 1% increase over last year), due to consumer anxiety over their finances and health.
- This could be blamed on things like expiration of unemployment insurance, lack of an effective vaccine and increased unemployment numbers.
- These reasons could lead consumers to spend less in order to save funds for non-discretionary items.
- The second scenario would see a 2.5% to 3.5% increase, thanks to increasing confidence of consumers.
- This could be the result of a federal pandemic relief bill, or an effective vaccine.
- Plus, if consumers aren’t spending money on travel, they could spend it on the holidays instead.
- The overall 1% to 1.5% increase is an average of the two scenarios.