Holiday Spending Likely To Increase, But Not By Much

While we’re not even officially finished with summer, people are already looking towards the holiday season, especially when it comes to shopping, and a new report predicts how things will go for retailers, and the news is mixed. According to Deloitte’s annual holiday forecast:

  • Overall holiday spending between November and January should be somewhere between $1,147 billion and $1,152 billion.
  • That marks an increase of between 1% and 1.5% over last year.
  • E-commerce sales are expected to jump by 25% to 35% this year, which is much more than the 14.7% increase last year.
  • E-commerce sales are expected to bring in between $182 and $196 billion this year.

But it’s not all good news. Deloitte notes that the holiday season could go two ways thanks to the coronavirus.

  • One scenario notes that sales could remain steady from last year (0% to 1% increase over last year), due to consumer anxiety over their finances and health.
  • This could be blamed on things like expiration of unemployment insurance, lack of an effective vaccine and increased unemployment numbers.
  • These reasons could lead consumers to spend less in order to save funds for non-discretionary items.
  • The second scenario would see a 2.5% to 3.5% increase, thanks to increasing confidence of consumers.
  • This could be the result of a federal pandemic relief bill, or an effective vaccine.
  • Plus, if consumers aren’t spending money on travel, they could spend it on the holidays instead.
  • The overall 1% to 1.5% increase is an average of the two scenarios. 


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